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Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 01/03/2024
Most recent certification approved 1/3/24 12:47 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 381
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures) account 381
Percent signals followed since 01/03/2024 100%
This information was last updated 7/6/25 4:41 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 01/03/2024, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

Spire

Created by: Michael_S Michael_S
Started: 12/2023
Stocks
Last trade: 11 days ago
Trading style: Equity Hedged Equity

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $99.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Hedged Equity
Category: Equity

Hedged Equity

Core holding of long equities hedged at all times with short sales of stocks and/or stock index options.
18.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(21.7%)
Max Drawdown
121
Num Trades
38.8%
Win Trades
2.3 : 1
Profit Factor
65.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and C2 Israel commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                                                                             (0.1%)(0.1%)
2024+1.1%+4.0%+7.0%(0.4%)(0.1%)+3.2%+7.8%+0.9%+1.9%(4%)+7.1%+1.4%+33.3%
2025+2.5%(0.9%)(5.5%)(9.4%)+6.5%+2.5%+2.0%                              (3.3%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 381 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
6/13/25 9:32 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 LONG 80 83.85 6/17 9:54 83.90 0.13%
Trade id #152047658
Max drawdown($162)
Time6/13/25 15:46
Quant open80
Worst price81.82
Drawdown as % of equity-0.13%
 $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.04
6/13/25 9:32 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.62 6/13 15:58 18.80 0.01%
Trade id #152047235
Max drawdown($12)
Time6/13/25 9:45
Quant open375
Worst price18.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $58
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.57
6/12/25 15:26 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.07 6/12 15:29 59.09 n/a $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.76
6/12/25 15:26 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.49 6/12 15:29 18.48 0%
Trade id #152035311
Max drawdown($3)
Time6/12/25 15:29
Quant open375
Worst price18.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($23)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:22 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.06 6/12 15:24 58.98 0%
Trade id #152034236
Max drawdown($3)
Time6/12/25 15:24
Quant open30
Worst price58.98
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:22 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.48 6/12 15:24 18.47 0%
Trade id #152034177
Max drawdown($3)
Time6/12/25 15:24
Quant open375
Worst price18.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($22)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:18 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.11 6/12 15:20 58.93 0%
Trade id #152033078
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 15:20
Quant open30
Worst price58.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($7)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:18 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.48 6/12 15:20 18.46 0%
Trade id #152033024
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 15:20
Quant open375
Worst price18.46
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:14 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.07 6/12 15:16 58.97 0%
Trade id #152032031
Max drawdown($3)
Time6/12/25 15:16
Quant open30
Worst price58.97
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:14 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.48 6/12 15:16 18.46 0%
Trade id #152031965
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 15:16
Quant open375
Worst price18.46
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:10 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.09 6/12 15:12 59.02 0%
Trade id #152030974
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/12/25 15:12
Quant open30
Worst price59.02
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:10 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.48 6/12 15:12 18.47 0%
Trade id #152030905
Max drawdown($1)
Time6/12/25 15:12
Quant open375
Worst price18.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:06 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.04 6/12 15:08 58.98 0%
Trade id #152029874
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/12/25 15:08
Quant open30
Worst price58.98
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:06 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.49 6/12 15:08 18.48 0%
Trade id #152029812
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/12/25 15:08
Quant open375
Worst price18.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($21)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 15:02 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.04 6/12 15:04 58.88 0%
Trade id #152028676
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 15:04
Quant open30
Worst price58.88
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($7)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 15:02 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.50 6/12 15:04 18.48 0%
Trade id #152028654
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 15:04
Quant open375
Worst price18.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 14:58 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 500 75.66 6/12 15:00 75.72 n/a $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.75
6/12/25 14:56 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 145 311.86 6/12 14:58 311.90 n/a $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.69
6/12/25 14:56 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.15 6/12 14:58 59.03 0%
Trade id #152026913
Max drawdown($4)
Time6/12/25 14:58
Quant open30
Worst price59.03
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($6)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 14:56 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.49 6/12 14:58 18.48 0%
Trade id #152026858
Max drawdown($5)
Time6/12/25 14:58
Quant open375
Worst price18.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 14:54 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 500 75.64 6/12 14:56 75.57 0.03%
Trade id #152026347
Max drawdown($34)
Time6/12/25 14:56
Quant open500
Worst price75.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 ($59)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $25.00
6/12/25 14:54 UDOW PROSHARES ULTRAPRO DOW30 LONG 150 88.37 6/12 14:56 88.27 0.01%
Trade id #152026285
Max drawdown($16)
Time6/12/25 14:56
Quant open150
Worst price88.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.82
6/12/25 14:52 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 LONG 80 85.17 6/12 14:54 85.17 n/a ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
6/12/25 14:52 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 145 311.79 6/12 14:54 311.74 0.01%
Trade id #152025642
Max drawdown($7)
Time6/12/25 14:54
Quant open145
Worst price311.74
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($14)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.24
6/12/25 14:50 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 30 59.09 6/12 14:52 59.01 0%
Trade id #152025021
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/12/25 14:52
Quant open30
Worst price59.01
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.50
6/12/25 14:50 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 375 18.48 6/12 14:52 18.48 0%
Trade id #152024942
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/12/25 14:52
Quant open375
Worst price18.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($21)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.76
6/12/25 14:50 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 500 75.53 6/12 14:52 75.62 n/a $21
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $25.00
6/12/25 14:48 UDOW PROSHARES ULTRAPRO DOW30 LONG 150 88.33 6/12 14:50 88.28 0.01%
Trade id #152024273
Max drawdown($7)
Time6/12/25 14:50
Quant open150
Worst price88.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($15)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.50
6/12/25 14:48 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 LONG 80 85.11 6/12 14:50 85.07 0%
Trade id #152024205
Max drawdown($3)
Time6/12/25 14:50
Quant open80
Worst price85.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($7)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
6/12/25 14:46 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 145 311.79 6/12 14:50 311.82 n/a ($2)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.24
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    12/29/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    554.72
  • Age
    19 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    121
  • # Profitable
    47
  • % Profitable
    38.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    29.7 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    21.69%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 19, 2025 - April 08, 2025
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    18.4%
  • Avg win
    $1,226
  • Avg loss
    $346.43
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $58,217
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $60,674
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    2.27:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.11
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.51
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.008
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -2.22%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.57710
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    31.65%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    18.4%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    11.10%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.24%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.184%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    20.4%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    11.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    874
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Performance-weighted percentile
    463
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    495
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $346
  • Avg Win
    $1,226
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $25,636.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    20
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $57,641.000
  • # Winners
    47
  • Num Months Winners
    13
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    671
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    290253
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    74
  • % Winners
    38.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    42795.80
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    713.26
  • Avg Trade Length
    29.7 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    6
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.32
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.00
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.02
  • Beta
    0.40
  • Treynor Index
    0.11
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.34
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    1.478
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.278
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.366
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.647
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16712
  • SD
    0.17675
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.94551
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.90037
  • df
    16.00000
  • t
    1.12539
  • p
    0.36458
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.74705
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.60987
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.77562
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.57636
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.37859
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.63979
  • Upside part of mean
    0.32001
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.15289
  • Upside SD
    0.13052
  • Downside SD
    0.12122
  • N nonnegative terms
    12.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    17.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14347
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16712
  • SD of predictor
    0.18097
  • SD of criterion
    0.17675
  • Covariance
    0.02420
  • r
    0.75643
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.73881
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06113
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01426
  • DF error
    15.00000
  • t(b)
    4.47902
  • p(b)
    0.06946
  • t(a)
    0.59305
  • p(a)
    0.40401
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.38723
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.09039
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15856
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.28081
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.22620
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06113
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.15062
  • SD
    0.18063
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.83386
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.79404
  • df
    16.00000
  • t
    0.99249
  • p
    0.37959
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.85012
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.49278
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.87548
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.46357
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.16938
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.41536
  • Upside part of mean
    0.31111
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.16049
  • Upside SD
    0.12652
  • Downside SD
    0.12880
  • N nonnegative terms
    12.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    17.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12688
  • Mean of criterion
    0.15062
  • SD of predictor
    0.18229
  • SD of criterion
    0.18063
  • Covariance
    0.02566
  • r
    0.77914
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.77202
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.05267
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01368
  • DF error
    15.00000
  • t(b)
    4.81382
  • p(b)
    0.06019
  • t(a)
    0.52489
  • p(a)
    0.41476
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43019
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.11386
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.16120
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.26653
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.19510
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.05267
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07060
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.09046
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01939
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04638
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    17.00000
  • Minimum
    0.87020
  • Quartile 1
    0.99951
  • Median
    1.01817
  • Quartile 3
    1.05118
  • Maximum
    1.07940
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95901
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.01093
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.04216
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.06723
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05167
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05882
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.87020
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.08213
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00313
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00315
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.17583
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06898
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01045
  • Quartile 1
    0.01141
  • Median
    0.01237
  • Quartile 3
    0.09385
  • Maximum
    0.17534
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01045
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01237
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.17534
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08245
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.20313
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.19545
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.11474
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.11474
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.16061
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16784
  • SD
    0.11788
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.42377
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.42104
  • df
    391.00000
  • t
    1.74154
  • p
    0.04119
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.18257
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.02833
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.18440
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.02647
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.94399
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.19194
  • Upside part of mean
    0.70726
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.53942
  • Upside SD
    0.08071
  • Downside SD
    0.08634
  • N nonnegative terms
    217.00000
  • N negative terms
    175.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    392.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17085
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16784
  • SD of predictor
    0.17343
  • SD of criterion
    0.11788
  • Covariance
    0.01173
  • r
    0.57388
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.39007
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.10100
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00934
  • DF error
    390.00000
  • t(b)
    13.83900
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.27817
  • p(a)
    0.10097
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.33466
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44549
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.05446
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.25685
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.43027
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.10119
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16080
  • SD
    0.11837
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.35839
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.35579
  • df
    391.00000
  • t
    1.66157
  • p
    0.04870
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.24758
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.96271
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.24937
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.96094
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.83653
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.04008
  • Upside part of mean
    0.70396
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.54316
  • Upside SD
    0.08006
  • Downside SD
    0.08756
  • N nonnegative terms
    217.00000
  • N negative terms
    175.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    392.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15587
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16080
  • SD of predictor
    0.17272
  • SD of criterion
    0.11837
  • Covariance
    0.01189
  • r
    0.58143
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.39848
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.09869
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00930
  • DF error
    390.00000
  • t(b)
    14.11300
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.24988
  • p(a)
    0.10605
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.34297
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.45399
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.05655
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.25393
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.40353
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.09869
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01135
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01436
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00430
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00938
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    392.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94739
  • Quartile 1
    0.99772
  • Median
    1.00075
  • Quartile 3
    1.00422
  • Maximum
    1.04286
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99268
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99936
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00242
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00852
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00651
  • Number outliers low
    11.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02806
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97518
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.01786
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02035
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.52971
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00738
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01742
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.38425
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00690
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01316
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    34.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00001
  • Quartile 1
    0.00224
  • Median
    0.00584
  • Quartile 3
    0.01289
  • Maximum
    0.20606
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00126
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00365
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00765
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.04818
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01065
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14706
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07126
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.58046
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04852
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.12802
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.47204
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05442
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.12082
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.21804
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.20769
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.00790
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    4.31053
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    14.45930
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.04665
  • SD
    0.14781
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.31564
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.31381
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.22319
  • p
    0.50979
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.08711
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.45704
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.08588
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.45826
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.37483
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.04661
  • Upside part of mean
    0.75260
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.79925
  • Upside SD
    0.07872
  • Downside SD
    0.12447
  • N nonnegative terms
    72.00000
  • N negative terms
    59.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13610
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.04665
  • SD of predictor
    0.24147
  • SD of criterion
    0.14781
  • Covariance
    0.02030
  • r
    0.56881
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.34818
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.09404
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01489
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    7.85484
  • p(b)
    0.15849
  • t(a)
    -0.54455
  • p(a)
    0.53048
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.26048
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43589
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.43572
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24764
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.13399
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.09404
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05765
  • SD
    0.14938
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.38591
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.38368
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.27288
  • p
    0.51196
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.15739
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.38702
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.15587
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.38852
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.45535
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.91979
  • Upside part of mean
    0.74944
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.80709
  • Upside SD
    0.07829
  • Downside SD
    0.12660
  • N nonnegative terms
    72.00000
  • N negative terms
    59.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10741
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05765
  • SD of predictor
    0.23975
  • SD of criterion
    0.14938
  • Covariance
    0.02076
  • r
    0.57969
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.36119
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.09644
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01493
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    8.08011
  • p(b)
    0.15282
  • t(a)
    -0.55788
  • p(a)
    0.53122
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.27275
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44963
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.43848
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24559
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.15961
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.09644
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01528
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01907
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00643
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01389
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94739
  • Quartile 1
    0.99675
  • Median
    1.00090
  • Quartile 3
    1.00503
  • Maximum
    1.01839
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98925
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99894
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00296
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00865
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00828
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04580
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96981
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00763
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01839
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.60778
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01121
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03097
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.47405
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00908
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01880
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00114
  • Quartile 1
    0.00203
  • Median
    0.00632
  • Quartile 3
    0.01169
  • Maximum
    0.20606
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00151
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00425
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00812
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11067
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00967
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.20606
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -381489000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    48
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.02952
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.02930
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.14221
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.26478
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.53686

Strategy Description

Investment Philosophy I believe the most effective way to generate market-beating returns is by ❨1❩ dynamically adapting to expected market behavior, ❨2❩ incorporating protective assets designed to reduce portfolio volatility and ❨3❩ adhering to sensible risk limits designed to mitigate extreme loss_ Asset Allocation I expect equities will comprise about half of portfolio capital over time with the balance allocated to diversifying and protective assets as needed_ In the short term, these proportions can fluctuate widely depending on my research insights_ The portfolio is re-balanced roughly once per month_ Some ETFs use leverage_ Idea Generation The research process is multi-disciplinary in nature_ It utilizes top-down, bottoms-up, qualitative and quantitative methods to determine overall market ‘risk appetite’_ This process helps establish optimal proportions of capital amongst investment categories and positions_ These views are updated monthly_ Portfolio Construction I construct the portfolio by evaluating markets and combining assets and strategies pursuant to established risk limits_ This is reflected in the following portfolio parameters: 1_ Instruments: U_S_ listed ETFs, multi-asset class, 12 in total ❨many use derivatives and leverage❩ 2_ Directionality: only takes long positions in ETFs; some non-equity ETFs may have longs or shorts 3_ Geographic Focus: U_S_ for equities, mostly G7 countries for other asset classes 4_ Portfolio Leverage: portfolio does not borrow, uses margin or go short any ETFs 5_ ETF Leverage: sum of maximum expected gross exposure across underlying ETFs = ~3X 6_ Average Capital Allocation: Equities ~50% ❨range 0-70%❩, balance to FX, Bonds, Commodities and VIX 7_ Restrictions: only long positions allowed in equity and VIX ETFs 8_ Rebalance Frequency: approximately once per month ❨generally around the turn of the month❩ 9_ Estimated Portfolio Turnover: approximately ~100-300% per year 10_ Estimated Long-Term Average Realized Volatility: annualized standard deviation ~25% Performance Expectations I am striving for a return profile analogous to a long call option on equities_ Dynamic beta management will ultimately drive returns, alpha and relative drawdowns, which I expect to be competitive versus broad equity indices over time_ Because I use an adaptive investing approach with a focus on generating asymmetric returns, I expect that my investment decisions will maximize ROI over time frames that include at least one bull market and one bear market_ Suitability The portfolio uses significant leverage and concentrated positions_ Therefore, it is only suitable for investors with a very high risk-tolerance, a long investment horizon and are prepared to lose some or all of their investment_ Only a small fraction of any investor’s assets should be allocated to the program_

Summary Statistics

Includes fees & commissions C2 Israel
Strategy began
2023-12-29
Risk Score
Extreme
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
121
# Profitable
47
% Profitable
38.8%
Net Dividends
$670
Correlation S&P500
0.577
Sharpe Ratio
1.11
Sortino Ratio
1.51
Beta
0.40
Alpha
0.02
Leverage
1.32 Average
2.00 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME# from #FROMWHERE#
started following started following #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.

The risk profile is set by the investment/trading style, types of assets and level of leverage. These factors place strategies into five risk levels: Low, Moderate, Medium, High, and Extreme.